Numbers Mean Progress (Even If They Don’t Mean Victories)

With a 3-4 record, Georgia has certainly not lived up to the expectations that many had during the summer of 2010. That being said, the Dawgs have certainly shown improvement over the 2009 team, even if the record is worse than it was last year. Stastics, while not telling the whole story of a season, at least provide insight into the ability a team has to perform on the field. For example, Georgia was third to last in the FBS in turnover margin last year and lost a number of games (such as Kentucky) that should have been won.

In total, I found 10 major team categories in which the 2010 Georgia Bulldogs are better than their 2009 counterparts:

#41 Passing Offense – 244.8 yards per game (201.1 - 71st in 2009)
#53 Total Offense – 395.1 yards per game (362.2 – 66th in 2009)
#51 Scoring Offense – 29.7 points per game (28.9 – 51st in 2009)
#16 Rushing Defense – 103.43 yards per game (126.1 – 36th in 2009)
#30 Passing Defense – 186.71 yards per game (213.1 – 51st in 2009)
#20 Scoring Defense – 17.43 points per game (25.9 – 64th in 2009)
#13 Kick Off Return Defense – 1st in the SEC (117th in 2009)
#23 Punt Return Defense (82nd in 2009)
#48 Penalties – 5.71 for 44 yards per game (8 for 67 – 113th in 2009)
#30 Turnover Margin - +4 for season (-1.23 per game – 118th in 2009)

Todd Grantham has clearly made a difference on defense. The only major statistic that Georgia is actually worse in this year is rushing offense, thanks in part to suspensions to Caleb King and Washaun Ealey. After seeing these numbers, you can’t help but wonder what might have been if AJ Green had been around for all seven games.

More on Murray

This article is a follow to a story I wrote last week concerning the doubts a number of people have had concerning the abilities of Aaron Murray to take over the starting quarterback position for the Georgia Bulldogs. This time, I will be focusing on two other items I have heard mentioned as reasons Murray may not be ready for the job: his mobility and toughness.

Mobility

In recent years, Georgia has seen a number of traditional drop back passers come through Athens. David Greene, Matt Stafford, and Joe Cox all fit perfectly into the traditional pro-style offense deployed by Mark Richt and Mike Bobo. But in 2005, DJ Shockley presented a combination of rushing and passing that allowed the offense to change to fit his skills. And while Aaron Murray may not be the same mobile weapon as DJ Shockley or even Logan Gray, his past record indicates that he can have a great deal of success using his feet.

Take a look at Murray’s stats from his junior season at Plant High School in Tampa. He put up impressive passing numbers (over 4,000 yards and 51 touchdowns) but that did not prevent him from also putting up gaudy rushing numbers. During the 2007 season, Murray rushed for 932 yards and 12 touchdowns on only 98 carries (an average of 9.5 yards per carry). And if numbers are not your thing, check out the first minute of this highlight reel from his junior year, where he makes three great plays (two complete passes and one run) with his feet:


Before breaking his fibula in the sixth game of the season of his senior year, Murray was once again putting up great numbers on the ground. On only 25 carries, he rushed for 258 yards (9.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. Without the injury, he would have most likely ended the season with about around 600 yards. Not too shabby for a record setting passer. Will Murray put up similar numbers at Georgia, most likely not. But these statistics do indicate that he has the ability to move around the pocket, find the open receiver, and take off when necessary.

Toughness

The fact that some people have questioned Murray’s toughness really baffles me. If you know anything about Murray’s senior season, you know he overcame a pretty serious injury to lead his team to a state championship. On October 16, Murray broke is fibula and dislocated his ankle in his team’s sixth game. The expected recovery time for an injury similar to Murray’s was typically six months. But there he was back on the field in the state semifinals. Murray helped lead Plant to a state title the following week, throwing for 358 yards and three touchdowns.

The other concern about Murray’s toughness arose when he was hampered by a sore shoulder last fall. While this may have cost him a chance to see playing time in 2009, he has already taken steps to strengthen his arm, following a strength program his brother used following Tommy John surgery. If you know anything about Tommy John surgery, you know that typically the arm is stronger when an athlete returns than it was originally. The reason is not the surgery, rather the workout routine required to strengthen the arm. If I was a betting man, I would place a very high bet that Murray never experiences any type of arm fatigue like Joe Cox did.

In conclusion, I am still baffled at the apparent lack of confidence there is in Murray going into summer practice. While he may not have playing experience, his past record suggests he has all the tools and ability to get the job done. How much experience did Greg McElroy have at Alabama before last fall? Not much, but look what he accomplished with a veteran team around him.

GO DAWGS!!!

Independence Bowl Preview: Texas A&M By the Numbers

Continuing our look at Georgia's Independence Bowl opponent, here is a look at how the Aggies stack up statistically.

Head Coach

Mike Sherman is in his second year on the sidelines for Texas A&M. He took over for Dennis Franchione following the end of the 2007 season, replacing Franchione's spread-option offense with a pro-style offense. Sherman was previously head coach of the Green Bay Packers, where he compiled 57-39 record from 2000 - 2005. Sherman is 10-14 overall in two years at A&M.

Offense

Texas A&M has one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. Lead by quarterback Jerrod Johnson, the Aggies can score quick and often through the air and on the ground. Here's how they rank nationally:

Rushing: 190 yards per game (2nd in the Big XII, 25th overall in the country)
Passing: 275 yards per game (6th in the Big XII, 22nd overall in the country)
Total Offense: 465 yards per game (1st in the Big XII, 5th overall in the country)

The offense statistical leaders for the Aggies are:

Passing:
Jerrod Johnson - 267 of 439 for 3217 yards, 28 Touchdowns and 6 Interceptions

Rushing:
Christine Michael - 151 carries for 767 yards and 9 touchdowns
Cyrus Gary - 156 carries for 752 yards and 5 touchdowns
Jerrod Johnson - 131 carries for 455 yards and 8 touchdowns

Receiving:
Uzoma Nwachuka - 37 catches for 670 yards and 6 Touchdowns
Ryan Tannehill - 44 catches for 574 yards and 4 Touchdowns

Defense
On defense, the Aggies are led by Von Miller who led the NCAA in sacks with 17. Outside of Miller, the Texas A&M is very weak and should not be able to stop a consistent Georgia offense.

Rushing Defense: 169 yards per game (10th in the Big XII, 87th in the country)
Passing Efficiency: 135.56 (Last in the Big XII, 84th in the country)
Passing Defense: 263 yards per game (Last in Big XII, 111th in the Country)
Total Defense: 431 yards per game (Last in the Big XII, 107th in the Country)
Scoring Defense: 33 points per game (Last in the Big XII, 104th in the Country)

Statistical Leaders:

Sacks - Von Miller - 17 total (16 solo, 2 Assists)
Tackles - Trent Hunter, DB - 86 total (51 solo, 35 assisted)
Interceptions - Jordan Pugh - 3 for 64 return yards

Miscellaneous

A&M's special teams have been anything but special. They have used two different punters, neither with much success and their coverage teams are bad. While they throw very few interceptions, they do not rank very high in turnover margin.

Turnover Margin: 8th in the Big XII, 66th in the Country
Kick Off Returns: 23 yards a returns (6th in the Big XII, 45th in the Country)
Punt Returns: 6 yards a return (10th in the Big XII, 96th in the country)
Net Punting: 34 yards a punt (10th in the Big XII, 92nd in the Country - Georgia is 1st in the country at 43 yards per punt)

Baby Steps: Margin of Victory

Since 1990, Florida has dominated the Georgia-Florida match up winning 16 of the 19 contests between the two teams. Under Steve Spurrier in the 90's, Florida absolutely owned the Dawgs winning 9 of the 10 games. The average magin of victory (for either team) during that span was 25.2 points. The largest margin of victory was 40 points coming in 1996 when the Gators won 47-7.

Since 2000, the games have been decidely closer. Despite a 39 point victory for Florida last year (which is clearly an outlier this decade) the average winning margin has been 11.5 points. While Meyer has continued Spurrier's winning tradition, the victories are not coming as easy as they once did. Under Mark Richt, the Dawgs have won twice in Jacksonville. The average score of the games during the Richt Era - Florida 24.75, Georgia 17.8. We may not have found the edge in the won-loss column, but at least the score is trending closer.

Alabama – Florida: The Similarities

As the 2008 SEC Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators nears, many in the media are quick to point out their clashing styles. Alabama is a strong defensive team with an offense built around its strong rushing attack. Florida is a high powered offense that relies on turnovers and special teams to set up quick scoring strikes. As their differences may be glaring, you may be surprised to see how similar these teams are in the numbers they have put up during the 2008 season.

SEC Statistical Rankings

As expected, Florida and Alabama dominate as the statistical leaders in the SEC. Of the 31 major categories which are tracked on the SEC’s statistics web site, either Florida or Alabama ranks first in 21 of those categories. In the following categories, the teams hold the first and second spot:

Scoring Offense – Florida 1, Alabama 2 (tied with Georgia)
Scoring Defense – Alabama 1, Florida 2
Rushing Offense – Florida 1, Alabama 2
3rd Down Conversion % - Florida 1, Alabama 2
Turnover Margin – Florida 1, Alabama 2
Pass Efficiency Defense – Florida 1, Alabama 2
Opponents’ First Downs – Alabama 1, Florida 2
Fourth Down Conversions – Alabama 1, Florida 2

Other categories where the two teams were also ranked closely to each other were:

Total Defense: Alabama 1, Florida 3
Rushing Defense: Alabama 1, Florida 3
Pass Defense: Florida 3, Alabama 5
Punt Return Average: Florida 2, Alabama 3
Kickoff Coverage: Florida 6, Alabama 7
Sacks Allowed: Florida 3, Alabama 4

Adding Demps to an offense that already had Tebow and Harvin meant a lot of points on the score board for the Gators in 2008.

Common Opponents:

Alabama and Florida shared 6 common opponents during the 2008 season. Here’s a look at each of those games, how each divisional champion fared, and which team’s victory was more impressive.

Georgia
- Alabama : Win, 41-30
- Florida : Win, 49-10

Both of these games were blowouts, with the Alabama and Florida each clearly dominating one half of the respective football game. The Crimson Tide opened a huge 31-0 lead on the Dawgs in the first half and cruised to victory (despite some late garbage time touchdowns for Georgia ). Florida turned a close game at half into a complete destruction and without a late touchdown pass from Joe Cox would have landed an almost 50 point victory.

The Georgia Blackout failed miserably against the Crimson Tide.

Advantage: Push


Ole Miss
- Alabama : Win, 24-20
- Florida : Loss, 31-30

Both teams struggled with Houston Nutt’s surprising Rebels team. Alabama jumped out to a 24-3 lead at half and was able to hold off 17 unanswered points from Ole Miss to win 24-20. Florida struggled to find a rhythm with its offense and a missed extra point ended up being the difference as the Gators fell 31-30.

Ole Miss stopped Tebow on a fourth and 1 and the celebration was on.

Advantage: Alabama


LSU
- Alabama : Win, 27-21(OT)
- Florida : Win, 51-21

Florida destroyed the Tigers, building a huge first half lead and never looking back (and getting some revenge for the loss in Death Valley last year). Nick Saban’s first trip back to the Bayou was ugly, as the emotion was almost enough to push the Tigers to victory. But a costly mistake by Jarrett Lee in OT led to the winning TD for the Tide.

Advantage: Florida

Arkansas
- Alabama : Win 49-14
- Florida : Win, 38-7

Alabama jumped out to a huge 35-7 lead at the half and cruised to a big victory over the Hogs. Florida struggled in the first half, but poured it on in the second half (scoring 21 points in the fourth after some careless Arkansas interceptions).

Advantage: Alabama

Tennessee
- Alabama : Win, 29-9
- Florida : Win, 30-6

Alabama kept the rival Vols from putting points on the board while earning a workman like 29-9 victory on the Third Saturday in October (that was actually the fourth Saturday in October). Florida scored 17 points in the first, but if not for two UT turnovers inside the Gators’ 5, the game might have been a different story.

Advantage: Push


Kentucky
- Alabama : Win, 17-14
- Florida : Win, 63-5

Alabama looked sluggish coming off the big win over Georgia and barely held on to defeat the Wildcats in Tuscaloosa. The Gators used multiple blocked kicks to set up touchdowns in a complete destruction of Kentucky in the Swamp.

Advantage: Florida

Final Tally: Alabama 2, Florida 2, Push 2


Final Thoughts

On paper, these teams look to be very similar. No team holds a distinct advantage either statistically or in common opponent victories. This game will most likely come down to which team forces the other team to make mistakes. I look for a close game at half, but the Gators’ offense to be too strong in the second half.

...but that won't stop the Gators from winning this game.

Prediction: Florida 38, Alabama 23