A Few Predictions for Championship Weekend

Between the victory over Tech, the bowl drama, and the firings, this has been a pretty crazy week. For Georgia fans, this has overshadowed the fact that this week brings us one of the most exciting college football weekends ever. Not only do we have the normal crop of championship games, but the Pac 10 Championship (which Oregon won last night) and the Big East Championship (between Cincy and Pitt) will also be decided. Here are my quick predictions for the games this weekend.

ACC Championship - Georgia Tech vs. Clemson

Both teams are coming off loses to their in-state SEC rivals. Georgia Tech earned a narrow victory on a late field goal when he two teams met earlier this season. It was only after the Jackets had squandered a huge lead. I think Clemson follows the model used by Georgia and gives Tech a healthy dose of All-American CJ Spiller. Look for a high scoring game, with Clemson to get its revenge and take home the ACC crown.

Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 31

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh (Winner gets Big East Championship)

The Bear Cats look to lock up their second straight Big East Championship against the Wannstache. I thought Pittsburgh had a good chance to win this game until they lost to West Virginia last weekend. I expect Brian Kelly's club to score fast and often. Cincy wins this one fairly easily.

Cincinnati 42, Pittsburgh 21

Big XII Championship - Texas vs. Nebraska

Fans from TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State will be strongly behind Nebraska as they hope an upset means they may get a shot at the SEC Champion for the national championship. Nebraska has a great defense and has a 9-3 record in Bo Pelini's second year. The defense should be able to keep Colt McCoy from having the type of night he had on Thanksgiving, but the question is can Zach Lee and the Cornhuskers muster enough offense to win. I think this will be a close game, but Texas's offense will be too much in the fourth quarter.

Texas 27, Nebraska 17

SEC Chmpionship - Alabama vs. Florida

It doesn't get much bigger than this. Last year, the two teams met with a National Championship berth on the line and played a great game that ended in a 31-20 Florida victory. Once again this year, the teams are ranked 1 and 2, but this time they are both undefeated. Both teams sport amazing defenses and a Heisman candidate on offense. Many people think the difference in the game will be Tim Tebow, but I disagree. We know Tebow will play solid, he always does in big games. The difference will most likely be the running game of Alabama and Mark Ingram. Ingram struggled against Auburn and was injured late in the game, but Alabama was able to get by with a late touchdown. If Ingram and the Bama run game is shut down, I don't think Greg McElroy can be expected to carry the Tide to victory. No matter what the final outcome, this will be one hell of a battle.

In an upset, I'm taking Alabama.

Alabama 30, Florida 28

Spurrier Beaten Twice

Writer's Note: I would've included the 1993, 1994 and 1996 SEC Championship Games, but it seems that YouTube Florida fans post more victories over Florida State in the 1990s than anything else, and that was a great rivalry back then. Wish the Seminoles could bring it back.

1999 SEC Championship Game: Alabama 34, Florida 7. Alabama claimed its first SEC title since 1992 and defeated the favored Florida Gators for the second time that year, beating them earlier in the Swamp.



Obviously, the signature play of this game was Freddie Milons run at about 0:58 in which he lined up at QB in the shotgun. It was the play that gave Alabama the confidence to win this game. That, and they were playing against The Bachelor Jesse Palmer.

Will Alabama have such a play on Saturday? Or will they ride Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram like Shaun Alexander?

Hey, anybody who beat Steve Spurrier twice in one year is okay by me.

Alabama went on to lose the Orange Bowl to Michigan 35-34 in OT on a missed extra point. And Florida went to lose the Citrus Bowl (Capital One) to Michigan State and Plaxico Burress. Better times for Plaxico indeed.

By the way, Bobby Williams was the interim head coach of that Michigan State team as Nick Saban had already accepted the head coaching position at LSU for the 2000 season.

Looks like it all connects...

Alabama – Florida: The Similarities

As the 2008 SEC Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators nears, many in the media are quick to point out their clashing styles. Alabama is a strong defensive team with an offense built around its strong rushing attack. Florida is a high powered offense that relies on turnovers and special teams to set up quick scoring strikes. As their differences may be glaring, you may be surprised to see how similar these teams are in the numbers they have put up during the 2008 season.

SEC Statistical Rankings

As expected, Florida and Alabama dominate as the statistical leaders in the SEC. Of the 31 major categories which are tracked on the SEC’s statistics web site, either Florida or Alabama ranks first in 21 of those categories. In the following categories, the teams hold the first and second spot:

Scoring Offense – Florida 1, Alabama 2 (tied with Georgia)
Scoring Defense – Alabama 1, Florida 2
Rushing Offense – Florida 1, Alabama 2
3rd Down Conversion % - Florida 1, Alabama 2
Turnover Margin – Florida 1, Alabama 2
Pass Efficiency Defense – Florida 1, Alabama 2
Opponents’ First Downs – Alabama 1, Florida 2
Fourth Down Conversions – Alabama 1, Florida 2

Other categories where the two teams were also ranked closely to each other were:

Total Defense: Alabama 1, Florida 3
Rushing Defense: Alabama 1, Florida 3
Pass Defense: Florida 3, Alabama 5
Punt Return Average: Florida 2, Alabama 3
Kickoff Coverage: Florida 6, Alabama 7
Sacks Allowed: Florida 3, Alabama 4

Adding Demps to an offense that already had Tebow and Harvin meant a lot of points on the score board for the Gators in 2008.

Common Opponents:

Alabama and Florida shared 6 common opponents during the 2008 season. Here’s a look at each of those games, how each divisional champion fared, and which team’s victory was more impressive.

Georgia
- Alabama : Win, 41-30
- Florida : Win, 49-10

Both of these games were blowouts, with the Alabama and Florida each clearly dominating one half of the respective football game. The Crimson Tide opened a huge 31-0 lead on the Dawgs in the first half and cruised to victory (despite some late garbage time touchdowns for Georgia ). Florida turned a close game at half into a complete destruction and without a late touchdown pass from Joe Cox would have landed an almost 50 point victory.

The Georgia Blackout failed miserably against the Crimson Tide.

Advantage: Push


Ole Miss
- Alabama : Win, 24-20
- Florida : Loss, 31-30

Both teams struggled with Houston Nutt’s surprising Rebels team. Alabama jumped out to a 24-3 lead at half and was able to hold off 17 unanswered points from Ole Miss to win 24-20. Florida struggled to find a rhythm with its offense and a missed extra point ended up being the difference as the Gators fell 31-30.

Ole Miss stopped Tebow on a fourth and 1 and the celebration was on.

Advantage: Alabama


LSU
- Alabama : Win, 27-21(OT)
- Florida : Win, 51-21

Florida destroyed the Tigers, building a huge first half lead and never looking back (and getting some revenge for the loss in Death Valley last year). Nick Saban’s first trip back to the Bayou was ugly, as the emotion was almost enough to push the Tigers to victory. But a costly mistake by Jarrett Lee in OT led to the winning TD for the Tide.

Advantage: Florida

Arkansas
- Alabama : Win 49-14
- Florida : Win, 38-7

Alabama jumped out to a huge 35-7 lead at the half and cruised to a big victory over the Hogs. Florida struggled in the first half, but poured it on in the second half (scoring 21 points in the fourth after some careless Arkansas interceptions).

Advantage: Alabama

Tennessee
- Alabama : Win, 29-9
- Florida : Win, 30-6

Alabama kept the rival Vols from putting points on the board while earning a workman like 29-9 victory on the Third Saturday in October (that was actually the fourth Saturday in October). Florida scored 17 points in the first, but if not for two UT turnovers inside the Gators’ 5, the game might have been a different story.

Advantage: Push


Kentucky
- Alabama : Win, 17-14
- Florida : Win, 63-5

Alabama looked sluggish coming off the big win over Georgia and barely held on to defeat the Wildcats in Tuscaloosa. The Gators used multiple blocked kicks to set up touchdowns in a complete destruction of Kentucky in the Swamp.

Advantage: Florida

Final Tally: Alabama 2, Florida 2, Push 2


Final Thoughts

On paper, these teams look to be very similar. No team holds a distinct advantage either statistically or in common opponent victories. This game will most likely come down to which team forces the other team to make mistakes. I look for a close game at half, but the Gators’ offense to be too strong in the second half.

...but that won't stop the Gators from winning this game.

Prediction: Florida 38, Alabama 23

"Just Too Much Speed"

As we all have disgustingly known for an entire month, Alabama and Florida will play for the SEC Championship on Saturday. As a fan of the SEC, I would like revisit some of the SEC Championship Games that Alabama and Florida played each other in from the 1990s.

The first being the inaugural SEC Championship Game in 1992. It was played at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama. You know, the stadium in which Alabama used to play half their home games, and call it neutral when Auburn used to play them there every year. This neutral stadium for the SEC Championship Game had a statue of Bear Bryant just outside the front gates.

It was about as neutral as Jacksonville, Florida. (Now, I know you Georgia fans will jump all over me for that.)

Alabama would defeat Florida 28-21 in 1992 and go on to win the National Championship in the Sugar Bowl (remember when the SEC Champion went to the Sugar Bowl every year...good times) over Miami.

Alabama's 1992 defense was unlike any defense seen in the past 25 years. Dominating DE's Eric Curry and John Copeland took over games. And Antonio Langham was a stud DB as proven at the end of this clip from the 1992 SEC Championship Game.

Ironically, ABC's Bob Griese, at about 1:25, says that Alabama has "just too much speed" for Florida. And that's what analysts are saying in 2008, just vice versa.



Alabama would go on to forfeit all of its games from the 1992 season due to agent involvement with some of its players, particularly Antonio Langham.

Terrorists Choose Alabama

I hate Florida, but this is somewhat disturbing. Notice the "ROLL TIDE" during the final seconds of the video.

Week 11: Impressions and Ramblings

Georgia 42, Kentucky 38
- Wow, what a game. I told other people this weekend that if I wasn’t a Georgia fan, that game would have been awesome. However, I am a Dawg fan and I almost had a heart attack. The important thing is that Georgia came out of Lexington with a victory.

- While I may not have correctly guessed the final score, at least I was right about Georgia jumping out to a big lead. The Dawgs got out to a quick start scoring two quick touchdowns on a pass from Stafford (career high 373 yards passing with 3 TDs) and a hard fought six yard score by Knowshon Moreno (123 yards and 3 TDs). The offense kept going most of the day, scoring touchdowns on six of its ten total possessions.

15 touchdowns on the season with 3 games to go. Please come back next year!

- While Mohamed Massaquoi did not quite match Fred Gibson’s Georgia record of 201 yards receiving, the senior from Charlotte turned in a hero worthy performance. MoMass had eight catches for 191 yards and a touchdown. After two costly fumbles on back-to-back possessions in the fourth quarter, it looked like he may end up being the goat. With Georgia down three points and the ball inside its own 20, Stafford hit Massaqoui across the middle and Mo did the rest. 78 yards later, the Dawgs were inside the Kentucky 10 and Stafford hit AJ Green for the game winning touchdown.

The Texas gunslinger waited just long enough to find AJ in the back of the endzone for the winning touchdown.

In the words of Jonathan Moxon in Varsity Blues, “If we go out and half-ass it 'cause we're scared, then we'll always wonder if we were really good enough. But if we go out there and give it all we've got... that's heroic.” Mohamed, that was a heroic effort.

- The downfall of Georgia’s special teams continues to perplex me. Maybe we have been spoiled with great kickers and excellent special teams players, but the breakdown in punt blocking and kick-off return coverage on Saturday was embarrassing. Not to mention that we have stuck by the directional kick off game plan with limited success and an out of bounds kick off on Saturday initially looked like it might spell disaster for the Dawgs. If Kentucky had not returned the favor with a kick off of their own out of bounds, the special teams collapse could have yielded a far worse outcome than it ultimately did.

- The defense stepped up when they had to in the 4th. Is it just me, or does Georgia’s defense seem to strike fear in exactly NO ONE? What happened to the days when teams were scared to come across the middle because Thomas Davis or Sean Jones was waiting for the kill. I really miss Brian Van Gorder.

Texas Tech is for real
- I thought the Red Raiders would fold in their second week in the spotlight to a well rounded Oklahoma State team who took Texas to the wire. I was wrong. The offense led by Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree scored on seven consecutive possessions after a fumble on the opening drive and never looked back. Their defense also showed its muscle, keeping the Cowboy offense in check in the blowout victory.

- Graham Harrell is a heck of a quarterback. Over the last ten years, Red Raider quarterbacks have consistently put up huge numbers in their pass happy offense. But Kliff Kingsbury, BJ Symons, and others all failed to find success at the next level. I believe that Harrell will be a different case. He makes every throw with crisp accuracy and has the arm strength to play on Sunday.

The Heisman front-runner could not be stopped on Saturday

SEC Championship Match Up
- If Alabama and Florida win their remaining games, the game in Atlanta will most likely be a match up of the #1 team in the country against either the #2 or #3 team in the BCS.

- Alabama was pushed to the limits against LSU on Saturday. After Jarrett Lee’s latest interception-filled game (including another pick 6), do you think The Hat is regretting the decision to kick Ryan Perrilloux off the team?

North Carolina knocks off Georgia Tech
- Butch Davis has built a solid program in Chapel Hill and is now in position to play for an ACC Championship. The offense was not brilliant, but put points on the board in beating the North Avenue Trade School, 28-7.

- Paul Johnson’s team moved the ball into Tar Heel territory on numerous occasions but could not put points on the board. I hope Mark Richt has a copy of the game on tape, because that was the perfect example of how to shut down Johnson’s triple option offense.

You lost to a team whose primary color is baby blue.

Final Thought
- As ugly as the game was, the only thing that matters is that Georgia’s record is now 8 -2. Since we are no longer in the national title hunt, style points mean nothing. We go to Auburn this Saturday to face a down Auburn team. Let’s make it three in a row over the War Tiger Plainsmen.

Even with Auburn struggling, the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry should be one hell of a fight.

GO DAWGS!!!

Georgia vs. LSU Memories - 2005

Georgia came into the 2005 SEC Championship ranked #13 in the country and fresh off a 14-7 win over rival Georgia Tech. LSU entered the game ranked #3 and heavily favored to beat the Dawgs for the SEC Championship for the second time in three years. Georgia jumped to a quick 14-0 with a pair of touchdown passes from DJ Shockley to Sean Bailey. After a Tiger touchdown made it 14-7, Georgia blocked a punt deep in LSU territory. DJ Shockley turned in a fantastic 7 yard touchdown run to make the score 21-7 at half.

Georgia continued to dominate in the second half. After knocking out JaMarcus Russell, Tim Jennings ran back a Matt Flynn pass for Georgia's final touchdown. Final score: Georgia 34 LSU 14.

Shockley's MVP performance included 3 touchdowns (2 passing and 1 running)

This will be my last LSU memories post of the week as we are heading to New Orleans tomorrow. Hope to see everyone in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

GO DAWGS!!!